Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences

Forging the ‘New Opposition’: Resilience, Strategy, and Digital Contention in Post-Election Indonesian Civil Society

2025-10-13T08:48:16+00:00

In the wake of recent elections, Indonesia’s political landscape has seen a consolidation of power and the co-optation of formal opposition parties, creating a vacuum in democratic accountability. This study investigates the emergence of a ‘New Opposition’—a constellation of civil society coalitions that have assumed the role of a critical check on state power. We examine the strategies these coalitions employ, their internal dynamics, and the mechanisms underpinning their resilience in an increasingly restrictive political environment. This research employed a 12-month ethnographic mixed-methods approach from May 2024 to May 2025. We conducted 35 in-depth interviews with activists, lawyers, and academics; participant observation within a major civil society coalition in Jakarta; and three focus group discussions. This qualitative data was triangulated with quantitative analysis, including a Social Network Analysis (SNA) of 45 organizations to map collaborative structures and a survey (n=150) of activists to gauge perceived strategic effectiveness. Our findings reveal a strategic repertoire that blends legal-constitutional challenges, sophisticated public narrative framing, and digitally-enabled mobilization. SNA results demonstrate a significant increase in network density (from 0.21 to 0.45) and centralization following key political triggers, indicating a rapid consolidation of the coalition. Key ‘broker’ organizations, particularly in the legal aid and digital rights sectors, were crucial for connecting disparate clusters. While digital platforms were vital for mobilization, they also exposed activists to significant risks, including doxxing and state-sponsored cyber-attacks, creating a paradox of visibility and vulnerability. In conclusion, Indonesian civil society coalitions have effectively transformed into a resilient ‘New Opposition,’ characterized by adaptive strategies and a robust, networked structure. They function as a crucial bulwark for democratic norms, operating outside formal political structures. Their resilience is derived not from a single strategy but from the synergistic interplay of legal, narrative, and digital contention, sustained by a dense network of trust and shared purpose. This study underscores the critical role of networked civil society in upholding democratic accountability in hybrid regimes.

Governing the Algorithm: A Mediation Analysis of Digital Transformation, Bureaucratic Discretion, and Service Quality in a Developing Democracy

2025-10-14T02:49:29+00:00

Governments worldwide are implementing digital transformation policies to enhance public service delivery. However, the impact of these algorithm-driven systems on street-level bureaucrats remains critically under-examined. This study investigates the complex pathways through which Indonesia's e-government policy affects bureaucratic work and service outcomes. This study employed a mixed-methods explanatory sequential design. Quantitative data were collected from 500 public officials across five Indonesian provinces. An E-Government Implementation Index (EGII) was constructed. We used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and a formal mediation analysis with bootstrapping to analyze the relationships between EGII, Perceived Bureaucratic Discretion (PBD), and Bureaucrat-Perceived Public Service Quality (B-PSQ). This was supplemented by 20 in-depth, semi-structured interviews to explain the statistical findings. Regression analysis confirmed a significant negative association between EGII and PBD (β = -0.47, p < 0.001) and a significant positive association between EGII and B-PSQ (β = 0.62, p < 0.001). The mediation analysis revealed that EGII has a strong, positive direct effect on B-PSQ (Effect = 0.57, p < 0.001) and a small but significant negative indirect effect through the reduction of PBD (Effect = -0.05, p < 0.01). Qualitative data revealed that officials feel constrained by "algorithmic cages" that, while improving efficiency, limit their ability to handle exceptional cases, thereby risking service equity for marginalized citizens. In conclusion, Indonesia’s digital transformation presents a complex trade-off. It successfully enhances administrative efficiency but simultaneously curtails the beneficial discretion of frontline bureaucrats, creating a small but significant drag on service quality. Effective digital governance requires a hybrid model that embeds algorithmic systems within a framework that empowers, rather than replaces, human judgment.

Reconfiguring Rivalry: Ideological Sorting, Digital Media, and the New Landscape of Affective Polarization in the Post-2024 Presidential Election in Indonesia

2025-10-16T04:37:40+00:00

The 2024 Indonesian presidential election marked a tectonic shift in its political landscape, dissolving the decade-long 'Cebong versus Kampret' rivalry. This study investigates whether this realignment led to depolarization or a reconfiguration of partisan animosity. It examines the structure and predictors of affective polarization in the immediate post-election environment. A cross-sectional survey was conducted from May to July 2024, involving 1,500 respondents across 15 provinces, selected via a multi-stage random sampling method with probability proportional to size. Affective polarization was measured using a feeling thermometer scale. Key predictors—including ideological self-placement, social media consumption for political news, and intergroup contact—were analyzed using hierarchical multiple regression. To test for non-linear ideological effects, both linear and quadratic terms for ideology were included in the model. The analysis reveals that affective polarization remains a potent force. The regression model showed a strong fit (R²= 0.47). While a linear measure of ideology was not a significant predictor, its quadratic term was a powerful and positive predictor (b = 0.42, p<0.001), indicating a U-shaped relationship where individuals at both ideological poles exhibit significantly higher polarization than those in the center. High consumption of partisan social media was also strongly associated with increased polarization (b = 0.35, p<0.001), while quality intergroup contact was linked to lower levels (b = -0.21, p<0.001). In conclusion, the post-2024 political era in Indonesia is characterized by a reconfiguration, not a dissipation, of affective polarization. The cleavage is no longer primarily personality-driven but is increasingly structured by ideological sorting, amplified by digital media ecosystems. These findings highlight the need for initiatives promoting cross-cutting dialogue and digital literacy to safeguard democratic health.

The Fault Lines of Modernity: A Mixed-Methods Autopsy of State Power, Social Resistance, and Identity Dialectics in Indonesia's New Capital Project

2025-10-16T07:36:30+00:00

The state-led relocation of Indonesia's capital to Nusantara (IKN) is a monumental project framed as a leap into a sustainable future. However, this top-down imposition of modernity is creating deep social fissures on the ground. This study conducts a sociological autopsy of the IKN development, dissecting the intricate mechanisms of resistance, displacement, and identity formation among affected communities. We employed a concurrent embedded mixed-methods design in North Penajam Paser, East Kalimantan (Jan 2024–Mar 2025). A structured survey was administered to 500 households, selected via a multi-stage sampling process, to quantify displacement anxieties and resistance participation. This was triangulated with 50 in-depth interviews with community leaders, displaced residents, and officials. Quantitative data were analyzed using t-tests and a Negative Binomial regression model to identify predictors of resistance, while qualitative data were analyzed thematically. Survey data revealed profound anxiety, with indigenous communities reporting significantly higher distress levels (t(498) = 10.2, p < 0.001). The Negative Binomial regression identified indigenous status (IRR=3.45, p<0.001), reliance on agro-forestry (IRR=2.88, p<0.001), and higher anxiety scores (IRR=1.12, p<0.001) as significant predictors of increased participation in resistance activities. Qualitative findings uncovered a sophisticated "tripartite arsenal" of resistance (symbolic, material, legal) and documented the emergence of a "Janus-faced" state, perceived as both coercively present and procedurally absent. In conclusion, the IKN project is a site of intense social struggle where competing modernities collide. State-led development, without genuine participation, engenders resilient and adaptive forms of social resistance and catalyzes a dialectical process of identity politicization. We argue that IKN risks becoming a landscape of exclusionary modernity unless a fundamental shift towards rights-based development is enacted.